Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 0.013475 0.015272 0.017225 0.019506 0.022098 0.024954 0.028341
2025-04-20 0.010866 0.013385 0.016363 0.020147 0.024835 0.030462 0.037745
2025-04-27 0.009404 0.012258 0.015830 0.020639 0.026959 0.035006 0.046068
2025-05-04 0.008431 0.011510 0.015548 0.021246 0.029109 0.039621 0.054812
2025-05-11 0.007424 0.010545 0.014805 0.021067 0.030080 0.042645 0.061608
2025-05-18 0.006680 0.009830 0.014288 0.021083 0.031239 0.045945 0.069021
2025-05-25 0.005977 0.009082 0.013621 0.020774 0.031836 0.048416 0.075378
2025-06-01 0.005543 0.008677 0.013400 0.021077 0.033339 0.052320 0.084238
2025-06-08 0.005062 0.008147 0.012927 0.020924 0.034082 0.055072 0.091488
2025-06-15 0.004807 0.007943 0.012934 0.021518 0.036052 0.059916 0.102583
2025-06-22 0.004318 0.007309 0.012189 0.020795 0.035755 0.060982 0.107351
2025-06-29 0.003964 0.006868 0.011718 0.020481 0.036105 0.063133 0.114160
2025-07-06 0.003560 0.006310 0.011011 0.019713 0.035620 0.063844 0.118564
2025-07-13 0.003424 0.006213 0.011094 0.020352 0.037713 0.069327 0.132306
2025-07-20 0.003279 0.006082 0.011102 0.020849 0.039580 0.074546 0.146046
2025-07-27 0.003162 0.005992 0.011173 0.021463 0.041712 0.080437 0.161660
2025-08-03 0.002949 0.005702 0.010846 0.021282 0.042284 0.083369 0.171630
2025-08-10 0.002780 0.005481 0.010631 0.021298 0.043237 0.087120 0.183624
2025-08-17 0.002587 0.005197 0.010269 0.020986 0.043489 0.089470 0.192886
2025-08-24 0.002479 0.005075 0.010215 0.021292 0.045045 0.094622 0.208666
2025-08-31 0.002331 0.004857 0.009951 0.021137 0.045605 0.097722 0.220217
2025-09-07 0.002269 0.004814 0.010039 0.021738 0.047845 0.104612 0.240985
2025-09-14 0.002087 0.004498 0.009535 0.021007 0.047083 0.104857 0.246439